If you had given a note pad to Indiana State head coach Mitch Hannahs in the fall and asked him to list five breakout candidates, there’s a decent chance that redshirt senior Geremy Guerrero doesn’t make that list.

That’s certainly no disrespect to Guerrero. But in the first four years of his career, he had tallied unimpressive earned-run averages, and had failed to be a front-line arm for the Sycamores.

But that was then. And now, Guerrero, much to everyone’s surprise, has transformed not only from the bullpen to the starting rotation so far during this 2021 season, but he’s also become one of the nation’s best and most productive pitchers.

He’s a slam-dunk to be on the Midseason Golden Spikes Award watch list, and it’s all because of incredibly hard work and dedication to his craft.

“I might be the dumbest guy alive if we didn’t have him starting right now,” Indiana State coach Mitch Hannahs laughed about. “When we didn’t have Tristan Weaver the first weekend of the season, we were still trying to figure out who we were going to start, and Geremy was one of the guys on the list. He was the guy that our assistant, Pascal Paul, wanted to start the year with. He really thought he would throw strikes and show a lot of poise.

“I could’ve easily started the season with Geremy in the pen, but credit to him, we didn’t do that,” he added. “He’s really improved his game, and he’s had a willingness to make adjustments. to be honest, I don’t think any of us saw this kind of year coming from Geremy. He better in the fall and there was a noticeable improvement. But now, it’s like … boom.”

Credit to Hannahs and the Sycamores coaching staff, they have not shied away from competition during this difficult COVID season. They opened the season against upstart Pittsburgh. And though they lost two out of three to the Pirates, Guerrero, a 6-foot, 240-pounder, was outstanding against Mike Bell’s club, striking out six in 5.1 shutout innings.

Little did Hannahs and ISU know at the time that it would become a precursor to what has been a special season thus far for the redshirt senior.

“He’s always been a guy with great poise, and we kind of used him out of the bullpen in the past,” Hannahs said. “He’s always been a strike thrower, but he got with our pitching coach and decided to reshape his pitches back in the fall.”

Guerrero had recorded some starts in his ISU career, but his overall numbers weren’t conducive to success. He made just one appearance in 2017, tallied 16 appearances and five starts in 2018 and had a 4.45 ERA in 30.1 innings, along with 27 strikeouts and 10 walks. Then, in 2019, he tallied a 6.42 ERA in 33.2 innings, along with a low walk total, but a high .277 OBA, before tallying a 10.13 ERA in just three appearances during the cancelled COVID season.

With his eligibility essentially over after last season, Guerrero and plenty of other veterans were tossed a lifeline by the NCAA with its ruling that no one would lose their year of eligibility as a result of the shortened season.

Like many other older players, Guerrero decided to use that extra year, and he trained in the long summer months to come back stronger than ever. That work has paid off in a big way this spring.

“It’s not every often you see a guy decide to come back for his redshirt senior year. I don’t think you see that much anymore,” Hannahs said. “He’s very, very rare, he’s always eager to learn and try to improve, and I think it says a lot about him that he was willing to return and continue to work his tail off.

“From the minute he got back, he’s worked very, very hard, and I’m so happy for him,” he continued. “You don’t get to see this a lot in coaching — where kids kind of come from nowhere to this. He had no idea what he was coming back to this fall and the spring. He could’ve easily been stuck back in the bullpen yet again. But he got locked in, and here we are.

“You’re seeing a lot of pretty competitive older players this season after they were given another year,” he added. “I think there are several kids around college baseball like Geremy who felt they had something to prove this season.”

In five starts so far this spring, Guerrero has a 1.14 ERA in 31.2 innings of work, along with 44 strikeouts and six walks, while teams are hitting him at a ridiculously low .157 clip.

So, how has this unexpected transformation come about?

It’s been a combination of pitching coach Pascal Paul’s teaching and Guerrero’s willingness to change his game.

For starters, Guerrero has tweaked and improved his upper-70s changeup. The coaches worked with the talented lefthander to try to get him to put the changeup on the same arm slot and path as the fastball. They wanted to pitch to replicate his fastball from a slot standpoint.

Second, the Sycamores added an upper-70s cutter to his arsenal. It’s a pitch he hadn’t thrown before the past fall. In addition to the cutter, Guerrero also worked diligently at tightening up his upper-70s breaking ball, while also continuing to pound the zone with his fastball.

“Pascal really went to work with him, and credit them both. Sometimes when you’re a junior or senior like that, you’re not as willing to change things. But Geremy was,” he said. “The big thing with Geremy is that he goes out there each start, and teams know that he’s going to throw three or four solid pitches for strikes.”

Guerrero’s fastball isn’t overwhelming, but he has immaculate command of the offering. His fastball will sit in the 86-88 range, and Hannahs said it will get up to 89-90 mph on occasion. His ability to have feel of the zone and command his offerings is what sets him apart from some other arms around the country. And according to Hannahs, he’s certainly no spin-rate darling.

“The most underrated thing in our game is just having the ability to go out there and have feel for the zone — know the hot zones and have the ability to really pitch,” he said. “If he’s got a down zone, he’ll live with it. He’s fine stretching the plate, too, and he understands each time out what he’s going to get from the umpire. He’s certainly not at the top end of your spin rate charts. But he’s just really managed to keep hitters off balance this season. He can pitch backwards — he will hit you with some off speed pitches in fastball accounts, and vice versa. He just has hitters on their heels.”

We said coming into the season that this spring would be filled with surprises, both from a player and team standpoint. And Guerrero and Indiana State have met both qualifications. Guerrero is having an amazing season and the Sycamores are currently sixth in the latest RPI ratings.

Perhaps Hannahs didn’t expect all of this way back in the fall. But, boy, is he enjoying it now.

And the fun part? We’ve got a long way to go.

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